Making Book on the New Pope

Like any other international organization, the Catholic church has had its share of changing leadership.  Their leaders are called "Pope" rather than Chief Executive Officer.

Given the changes that we have seen in the various Popes, I began to wonder if I could make any money betting on the length of service Pope Frances I will be able to  give.  I'm always up for making a buck and if it's church-related money, so much the better as I consider it to be tax-free.  Separation of church and state, ya know?

Papal Track Records

Pope John 23 from 1958 to 1963.  Died of stomach cancer at age 81..  Five years service.

Pope Paul IV from 1963 to 1978  Died of a massive heart attack, age 80.  15 years of service.

Pope John Paul 1st from 1978 to 1978.  Died of a heart attack, age 65

Pope John Paul II from 1978 to 2005.  Died age 84 with 27 years service.

Pope Benedict from 2005 to 2013, retired after eight years service. 

For the five Popes, 56 years of service averaging 11.2 years per Pope.

The total age for four of the former Popes (Benedict resigned) is 310 years, divided by four to equal a life span of 77.5.

Handicapping Pope Francis I

Positive Factors
Had Italian parents and old Italians are, generally-speaking, tougher than a boiled owl.
Said to live simply, cooking his pasta in his own little kitchen and using public transportation rather than being driven. 

Negative Factors
He is 76.  Prelates generally retire at 75.
He is clinically obese
He has one lung
So much for a simple life any longer

Since it's my book, I get first choice and my bet is five years,, putting him at 81 before retirement or death. 

Cousin Doug says less than five years.

What say you, Gentle Reader?